Disappointment reigned in October 2009 when the latest quarterly figures for gross domestic product (GDP) showed a fall of 0.4% compared with the previous quarter, instead of the slight increase that had been widely predicted. We shouldn’t panic just yet, the margin of error in these figures is considerably more than 0.4%. However, there is still a long way to go — as Adam Smith famously observed: ‘There’s a deal of ruin in a nation.’
The government’s forecasts over 2008 and 2009 have been much too optimistic, but with a general election due in less than 6 months now, this is a particularly tricky time for politicians. They not only want to take action that will make things better (or, at least, stop them getting worse), but they also need to be seen to be taking relevant action.
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