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understanding markets

Business forecasting

On the morning of 23 June 2016, polling organisations, betting businesses and City analysts were of one mind: the UK would vote to stay in the European Union. And on 13 August Gary Lineker introduced Match of the Day in his pants after promising to do so if Leicester City won the 2015/16 Premier League. Why is forecasting both so irresistible and so difficult?

Leicester City supporters celebrate their side’s unforeseen triumph in the 2015/16 Premier League

From a business point of view, forecasting is irresistible because every business decision is about the future, and every business decision should reflect the business objectives. So managers need to know what the business is trying to achieve and how close it is to achieving it.

In December 2013 Ferrero’s UK boss said:

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The flower business

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