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The new economics of smoking

Smoking tobacco damages health and can lead to early death, but cigarette consumption worldwide continues to rise. Can neoclassical economics explain this, or do we need to turn to a behavioural approach? Matthew Gobey investigates

Smoking is more popular than ever before. Worldwide, at least 1 billion people (800 million men and 200 million women) smoke, with the consumption of cigarettes continuing to increase. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates 6 million people a year die prematurely from smoking-related diseases around the world (600,000 from second-hand smoke, that is smoke inhaled involuntarily from tobacco smoked by others). These figures will inevitably rise as today’s smokers build up years of consumption.

This popularity is not universal. There are wide variations in addiction across countries and between men, women and teenagers within countries. In countries such as the UK, there has been a slow decline in the number of smokers — from the nearuniversal post-Second World War levels — and in the number of cigarettes smoked by those still addicted. The differences in these patterns help us to decipher what truly drives people’s choices.

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Do house prices drive consumption?

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First term at university

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