David Cameron has promised that if the Conservatives win the 2015 general election, he will (i) negotiate ‘a new settlement’ for the UK in the European Union (EU) and (ii) hold a referendum on whether the UK should remain in the EU (Cameron 2013). Why did Cameron promise an ‘in-out’ referendum — and who would win?
Governments promise referendums in order to manage internal divisions or gain electoral advantage. Cameron reacted to dissent from eurosceptic Conservative MPs, 81 of whom had defied a three-line whip to support an in-out referendum in October 2011, by taking the issue out of the parliamentary arena. He had focused on the European Union Act (2011) which provides for a referendum whenever a new treaty transfers powers to the EU. Most Conservatives support the new position on renegotiation and a referendum, but Cameron bowed to pressure for a firmer commitment by backing James Wharton’s Private Member’s Bill on a referendum in 2017.
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