In late 2014, the United Nations released its latest global population projections. Analysis published in the journal Science (Gerland and Raftery et al. 2014) suggested that, contrary to previous interpretations, world population is unlikely to stop growing in the twenty-first century.
Using new statistical techniques, Raftery (who is professor of statistics and sociology at the University of Washington) argues that there is a strong probability that world population will increase from the current 7.2 billion people to around 11 billion by 2100 — see Figure 1. Much of this will occur in sub-Saharan Africa, due to Africa’s higher fertility rates and a recent slowdown in the pace of fertility decline. In addition, the ratio of working-age people to older people is likely to decline in all countries, even those with younger populations.
Your organisation does not have access to this article.
Sign up today to give your students the edge they need to achieve their best grades with subject expertise
Subscribe
